November 08, 2006
More Fun With Math
NP: John Cage, 4'33
Josh Marshall works to take the air out of Ken Mehlman's claim that losing 30 seats is "typical." He cites the following sixth-year shifts:
1958: Eisenhower--Republicans lost 48 seats
1986: Reagan--Republicans lost 5 seats
1998: Clinton--Democrats gained 5 seats
Two things stand out. First, Marshall limits his analysis to the time frame after World War II, which raises a red flag. Second, there's a sneaky way that, even with the data cited, Mehlman is actually right. If you take it one step further and say that losing 30 seats is about average for the sixth year of a GOP presidency, even using the post-WWII era as your base, you've got ((48 + 5 ) / 2), which is 26 1/2.
Which isn't to say it's not a bullshit talking point from Mehlman, just that pointing to the numbers isn't necessarily the right way to debunk it.
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