January 18, 2010
The Application of Statistics in Politics
NP: Baaba Maal, Firin' in Fouta
I think the special election in Massachusetts is rekindling the fire for a lot of the more analytical pundits. I especially like this assessment of the likelihood of health care passing given various outcomes of the Coakley-Brown race, because Bayesian analysis is something that was only just starting to creep into the picture when I left some of the more hardcore statistical modeling of my first post-college job. I don't know all that much about it, and this is a nice practical demonstration.
As you might have guessed, I picked up that link from the irrepressible Nate Silver, who is going at this special election with everything he's got. He shows how predictive models are strongly affected by their underlying assumptions, and then considers a couple other ways to view the trends in polling data.
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