NP: jazz in a coffeeshop, Miles Davis, I think

There seem to a whole bunch of new bloggers over at fivethirtyeight.com -- although some may have just been filling while Nate Silver was on vacation -- but none of them seem to have the same ability to convey insight instead of just analysis, or come up with phrases like "an ecstasy pill for the banks," as Silver does in this post on the fate of Tim Geithner's recovery plan.

This bit also stood out, on the economy in general:

The economy is doing more than just feeling better; it's showing some fairly robust signs of turning the corner and actually getting better. The Leading Economic Index improved significantly in April (the most recent data available; it is quite likely to improve further in May), with seven of ten key indicators improving -- these are things like consumer sentiment, supplier deliveries, the S&P 500 (which is up about 20 percent since the Geithner plan was announced) and initial unemployment claims.

Mind you, we aren't out of the woods just yet. For one thing, the most direct way in which most of us feel the impact of the economy -- unemployment -- is unfortunately a lagging rather than a leading indicator, and has particularly been so in recent recessions.

My view from the ground reinforces this, in my head, anyway. I just need to know how much unemployment lags, so I can keep my expectations in check.