February 07, 2008
Predicting Turnout
NP: John Cage, 4'33"
Remember yesterday, when I was talking about how much more informative it would be to thoroughly investigate why some of the political polling has been all over the map? Polling guru John Zogby sheds some light on California:
It appears that we underestimated Hispanic turnout and overestimated the importance of younger Hispanic voters. We also overestimated turnout among African-American voters.
This raises possibly as many interesting questions about Obama's support as this notion of doing well in states with high or low black populations, but not in the big space in between. Questions like, could this negative assessment of Obama's Hispanic ground game be generational?
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