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January 09, 2008

Killing The Messengers

NP: John Cage, 4'33" (extended dance mix)

Despite being a fan of Barack Obama, I'm down with last night's outcome in New Hampshire, for some of the same reasons as Kevin Drum, namely the second and third. I heard exit poll data that talked about how, among voters who were interested in experience and compassion, Clinton did really well. Which means that the two things that the media were getting on her case about -- getting angry in the debate about discounting her history of effecting change, and getting emotional on Monday -- may have actually resonated with voters. And I still think that Hillary's lighter, humanizing debate moment got severely underplayed by the media, because it didn't fit with their narrative.

Even so, it's hard to pin such a big swing against the polling data to two moments that happened in the previous three days. Unless, of course, you've got a body of people who are undecided -- or whose first choice dropped out of the race after New Hampshire -- that need to make up their minds. Jay Carney points to supporters of Biden and Dodd, and it's a compelling argument. Kevin Drum expands on it to make the math work a little better.

With all the effort put into being the second choice of candidates who didn't hit the viability threshold in Iowa, is it possible that the Obama campaign didn't lobby those voters, or possibly those ex-candidates, enough? Or did Hillary target them directly? If the latter, that's pretty shrewd.

When all is said and done, I'm always a fan of a good media narrative getting smashed to bits. Plus, democracy! Josh Marshall sums up:

Both sides have now had transcendent moments. Both sides can plot credible paths to the nomination. And both campaigns have found arguments that appear to resonate with sizable constituencies. It's game on. And as someone who likes politics and loves his country I can't see any reason not to be pleased with that result.

Works for me.

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