NP: John Cage, 4'33"

Josh Marshall talks about a "small, discernable" trend toward Kerry over the weekend. I'm not sure why that's more notable than the large and obvious trends away from Bush from both Gallup and, oddly enough, Fox News.

Both of those polls had Bush up by a lot a month ago, and are both now down to even. Some people are pointing to the whole party affiliation weighting issue at least for Gallup. If you recall, the knock on that poll was that it oversampled Republicans, and there's a notion that they've fixed this in the sampling structure by now, which makes it a little more suspect for trending purposes.

I haven't been watching too closely at who is making that argument, though. It wouldn't surprise me if it's coming from the right -- they have the most to gain from discounting the trend -- but I'm starting to realize how far to the left I've been in my reading lately, so my perspective is a bit skewed. I'm only just beginning to find a better middle ground.